World Cup: The match neither team wants to win

Don't be surprised if Austria and Algeria show minimal interest in attacking when they face off Saturday night in Kansas City. This is the rare World Cup match that neither team wants to win. Austria and Algeria enter their final Group J match deadlocked at three points apiece. Neither can overtake group winner Argentina for first place with a victory, nor are they in jeopardy of slipping to fourth place behind already-eliminated Jordan with a loss.  Saturday night’s match in Kansas City should be a showdown for second place in the group and automatic qualification to the knockout rounds, except the catch is that it may be more beneficial for Austria or Algeria to finish in third. Eight of 12 third-place teams in group play advance to the knockout stage. And the round of 32 draw potentially appears more favorable for a third-place qualifier from Group J than for its runner-up. The second-place finisher in Group J is on course to meet pre-World Cup favorite Spain in the round of 32. Should the third-place side advance, it could draw a round of 32 opponent who is not among the top 10 teams in the current FIFA world rankings. Entering Friday, Group B winner Switzerland is the most likely round of 32 matchup for Austria or Algeria if they finish third in Group J and advance to knockout play. They could also face the winner of Group G (Egypt, Belgium or Iran), Group L (England or Ghana) or Group K (Colombia or Portugal).  Since Austria’s goal differential (even) is better than Algeria’s minus-2, the calculus for both sides is different entering Saturday’s match. A tie is a perfect result for the Algerians because one more point would wrap up their spot in knockout play but it would not be enough to leapfrog Austria for second place in the group. A tie would automatically secure the Austrians’ place in the round of 32, but they would be on pace to face Spain by virtue of finishing second.   Could Austria and Algeria play cautiously for most of the match and then spend the second-half hydration break drawing up plans to lose on an own goal in stoppage time? Perhaps, but it depends on how the third-place table looks by the time Saturday night’s match kicks off. Four third-place teams have already finished group play with four points, putting them in good position to advance to the knockout stage. South Korea could sneak through with three points and a minus-1 goal differential. Scotland also has three points but a goal differential of minus-three, leaving the Scots vulnerable to be overtaken by the likes of Belgium, Cape Verde, D.R. Congo or Senegal for the final spot in the round of 32. Algeria could lose to Austria by a single goal and remain ahead of the Scots by virtue of having scored more goals. Austria has a little more wiggle room. A carefully managed one-goal defeat would leave the Austrians with a minus-1 goal differential but more goals scored than South Korea. Third-place standings (as of Noon ET Friday) Rank Team Games Played Points Goal Differential 1 Sweden * 3 4 0 2 Ecuador * 3 4 0 3 Bosnia and Herzegovina * 3 4 -1 4 Paraguay 3 4 -2 5 Croatia 2 4 -1 6 South Korea 3 3 -1 7 Algeria 2 3 -2 8 Scotland 3 3 -3 CUTLINE 9 Cape Verde 2 2 0 10 Belgium 2 2 0 11 Congo DR 2 1 -1 12 Senegal 2 0 -3 Both teams will know exactly what they need to achieve to advance since all other groups will be done playing by Saturday night. There’s great irony that Austria and Algeria are in this position given the history between these two countries on the soccer pitch.  Algeria became the first African side to win two matches at a World Cup in 1982, defeating mighty West Germany in its group-play opener before falling to Austria and bouncing back to edge Chile. The Algerians were in position to advance out of the group if West Germany failed to beat Austria or won by three or more goals.  West Germany’s Horst Hrubesch scored 10 minutes into the match against Austria. Then both teams largely stopped attacking, aware that the 1-0 result would send them both through at Algeria’s expense. That infamous match is now known as the “Disgrace of Gijon.” New York Times columnist George Vescey wrote at the time that “it is impossible to prove that the two teams worked in tandem,” but noted the match itself served as evidence. If Saturday night’s Algeria-Austria match becomes the “Disgrace of Kansas City,” blame FIFA’s insistence on expanding the World Cup from 32 teams to 48.  There is more room for shenanigans with eight third-place teams advancing to knockout play rather than just the top two teams in each group.