France the team to beat? Chris Sutton predicts World Cup's last-32 matches

Sixteen of the 48 teams are heading home, but which of the sides left standing will survive all the way to the World Cup final at MetLife Stadium near New York City on 19 July? The hopes of another 16 nations will bite the dust after the first knockout round, which includes England against DR Congo and holders Argentina against surprise package Cape Verde. It was a different team who caused the biggest shock in the final set of group games, however. While BBC Sport's football expert Chris Sutton and AI still went for Cape Verde to lose against Saudi Arabia - from more than 50,000 users playing the BBC's new predictor game - 39% of you correctly went for a draw and 43% even backed the African side to win. Instead, it was Ecuador who caught almost everyone out this time. From more than 56,000 users predictions for that game, only 597 of you correctly backed them to beat Germany. Chris and AI were also wrong about that one but, overall, they both got 15/24 predictions right from that set of matches. Again, the users did better, with 17/24, and they still lead the way with 72 of this World Cup's 104 matches now completed. Chris has been right 41 times (57%), AI has a score of 43 (60%), but you lot are doing even better with 48 (67%). Before the tournament, Chris also picked the order he thought each of the 12 groups would finish in. He was right about seven of the winners, but only got all four teams in the correct order in three of the groups. AI's predictions have been generated using Microsoft Copilot Chat. We simply asked the tool to 'predict the results of the World Cup last-32 ties'. The new BBC predictor game allows readers to pick a winner from each knockout tie. PLAY WORLD CUP PREDICTOR HERE LAST-32 TIES Sunday, 28 June [BBC Sport] South Africa v Canada Los Angeles / 20:00 BST After watching South Africa at Estadio Azteca in the opening game of this tournament, I was absolutely shocked to see them finish second in Group A and make the last 32. I feel like they are here because South Korea took them too lightly in their final group game, which I understand in some respects, but I don't see Canada doing the same. Canada boss Jesse Marsch gets a bit of stick for some of his behaviour but his team have got something about them and I like the way they play. It is going to be hard for South Africa to deal with their intensity. Neither country had ever reached the knockout stage of a World Cup before, and this is a great opportunity for the co-hosts to go even further - I'll be shocked again if they don't. Sutton's prediction: 0-3 AI's prediction: 1-2 Monday, 29 June [BBC Sport] Brazil v Japan Houston / 18:00 BST I am covering this game for Radio 5 Live and I have a feeling there is going to be an upset here - although it would not count as an upset for me or my commentating colleague Ali Bruce-Ball. Japan are his dark horses for the tournament and it wouldn't be fair to him if I didn't go with him on this game. They beat Brazil for the first time when they played them in a friendly in Tokyo last October and I think they are going to beat them again here and knock them out. Whatever happens, it will be a fascinating match. Brazil could go on and win this World Cup and, if they do, it will be because of their manager, Carlo Ancelotti. He's a superb organiser, but I worry about them in the middle of the park, and I don't think they have got the legs to deal with Japan's rapid attacks. Sutton's prediction: 1-2 AI's prediction: 2-1 [BBC Sport] Germany v Paraguay Boston / 21:30 BST Germany boss Julien Nagelsmann had earned the right to make changes for their defeat by Ecuador because they had already won their group. They will be back to full strength here and we know how this game will pan out - Paraguay will defend deep and it will be up to Germany to break them down. Sutton's prediction: 2-1 AI's prediction: 3-0 Tuesday, 30 June [BBC Sport] Netherlands v Morocco Monterrey / 02:00 BST This is a really good game because both teams will be thinking they can go really far, especially because whoever wins this tie plays either South Africa or Canada next. The Netherlands impressed me during the group stage - they were pretty solid at the back and were not short of firepower. But Morocco have got great quality right through their team and they will believe they can compete with any team in the tournament. Sutton's prediction: 1-3 AI's prediction: 1-2 [BBC Sport] Ivory Coast v Norway Dallas / 18:00 BST I am at this game too, and it is a very tough one to call - although there will definitely be a few goals in it. Erling Haaland is chasing the Golden Boot and was one of the players Norway rested against France when they were already through from a tricky group. He will be hard to stop. But Ivory Coast carry a threat too, whoever they pick up front. It could turn out to be a thriller and it might take penalties to decide it. Sutton's prediction: 2-2 after extra time. Norway to win on penalties AI's prediction: 2-2 after extra time. Ivory Coast to win on penalties [BBC Sport] France v Sweden New York / 22:00 BST Sweden sat in against Japan to get the result they needed to get out of their group and I am sure they will stay deep again here to try to stay in the game. It won't work, though. At this moment in time, I can't see anyone stopping France with their firepower. Sutton's prediction: 4-0 AI's prediction: 2-0 Wednesday, 1 July [BBC Sport] Mexico v Ecuador Mexico City / 02:00 BST Everyone is talking about whether it will be England versus Mexico in the last 16, but Mexico have to get through this tie first - as do England against DR Congo. Yes, Mexico are at home again but the high altitude won't bother Ecuador - they play their home matches in Quito, which is even further above sea level. Ecuador don't concede a lot and will be full of confidence after beating Germany, but Mexico have had a great tournament so far and their feel-good factor - and their fans - should help see them through. Sutton's prediction: 1-0 AI's prediction: 1-2 after extra time. [BBC Sport] England v DR Congo Atlanta / 17:00 BST This isn't going to be an easy game for England. DR Congo had less than 30% possession in their first two games in Group K, but in one of them they got the 0-0 draw with Portugal that ultimately helped send them through. I covered DR Congo's win over Uzbekistan in their last group game and their coach, Sebastien Desabre, switched to a 4-4-2, with two attacking wingers. He is known as 'The Florist' because he helps young players to blossom, and everything has come up roses for him again. They will return to a back five for this tie and do what they did against Portugal, which is counter-attack. Yoane Wissa has not had a great season for Newcastle but he will be dangerous and England will have to look out for Sunderland's Noah Sadiki too. This is a team that Thomas Tuchel shouldn't under-estimate, but I still think England will get through. Sutton's prediction: 2-1 AI's prediction: 3-1 [BBC Sport] Belgium v Senegal Seattle / 21:00 BST I've not been impressed by Belgium, who squeaked their way to finish top of what was a pretty weak group. In contrast, Senegal were in a really tough group and caused France and Norway plenty of problems despite losing both games. I don't know if this counts as an upset but I am backing Senegal. They have certainly got enough goals in their team. Sutton's prediction: 1-3 AI's prediction: 2-1 Thursday, 2 July [BBC Sport] USA v Bosnia-Herzegovina San Francisco / 01:00 BST I don't think there is any way the USA don't win this, even if their star man Christian Pulisic might not be 100% fit. Mauricio Pochettino made a few changes in their final group game, which they lost to Turkey in a dramatic ending, but he already knew they had topped the group. Their 'A' team will be back for this one and I am expecting Pochettino's plan to come together and they should dismantle a pretty limited Bosnia side. Sutton's prediction: 3-0 AI's prediction: 2-0 [BBC Sport] Spain v Austria Los Angeles / 20:00 BST Spain are another one of my tips for this tournament - I've got a few of them - and they are going to go deep into this World Cup. As well as Lamine Yamal they have got so many other talented players, and it is good to see old 'Bigfoot' - aka Mikel Oyarzabal - playing well up top. They have not really hit peak performance yet, but that might change here. Ralf Rangnick's all-action Austria side will try to press the way they always do, but Spain will just play around them. Sutton's prediction: 3-1 AI's prediction: 2-0 Friday, 3 July [BBC Sport] Portugal v Croatia Toronto / 00:00 BST Cristiano Ronaldo is 41 but has played every minute for Portugal so far, which I think is embarrassing for Roberto Martinez. I've never known a manager to pander to a player as much as he does. Portugal have some incredible players but, as great as Ronaldo once was, they are being held back by having him permanently on the pitch as their centre-forward. But, while he is not the player he was, Croatia are ageing too and are not the team they once were either. This will be close but I see Portugal taking it in normal time. With me writing Ronaldo off, he will probably score the winner. Sutton's prediction: 1-0 AI's prediction: 2-1 [BBC Sport] Switzerland v Algeria Vancouver / 04:00 BST Algeria battled back brilliantly twice against Austria in their final group game to qualify, and almost won the game, but they face a mountain to climb to get past another alpine nation. Switzerland have never won a World Cup knockout game in eight attempts but that record ends here. Granit Xhaka is the heartbeat of their side and he will lead them into the last 16. Sutton's prediction: 2-0 AI's prediction: 2-1 [BBC Sport] Australia v Egypt Dallas / 19:00 BST I know everyone will be talking about Egypt's Mohamed Salah but I don't see him getting on the scoresheet here - or anyone else for that matter. Both teams love to defend and to play on the counter-attack, and neither of them will be opening up. This is going the distance. Sutton's prediction: 0-0 after extra time. Egypt to win on penalties. AI's prediction: 2-1 [BBC Sport] Argentina v Cape Verde Miami / 23:00 BST What a story Cape Verde are. For such a small nation to make it out of their group is what the World Cup is about, and we now know just how good they are defensively. They have already shut out Spain, but I don't see them stopping Argentina, who are probably the most streetwise team in the tournament, and you cannot look past Lionel Messi having the final say. Sutton's prediction: 2-0 AI's prediction: 4-0 Saturday, 4 July [BBC Sport] Colombia v Ghana Kansas City / 02:30 BST I have been really impressed by Colombia, who work their socks off and are exciting going forward too. Ghana will try to keep them quiet the same way they kept England out, but Colombia will have too much attacking quality for them. Sutton's prediction: 2-0 AI's prediction: 1-0