World Cup power rankings: Who's most likely to win it all now?

One game into the first World Cup Round of 32, it’s time to power rank the remaining 31 teams with no regard for where I put them in my pre-tournament rankings . The two primary factors were 1) how good each team has looked, and 2) how far the team can realistically go given the bracket path ahead.  Tier 1: World Cup title favorites I’ll be surprised if one of these four teams is not lifting the trophy on July 19. They’re four of the five pre-tournament favorites, so not much has changed in general, though I do have a new top team …  World Cup power rankings - Round of 32 Hassan Ahmad/Yahoo Sports 1. Argentina More than any other team, Argentina has been in control of every game, scoring first to take the lead in the first 40 minutes of all three and never looking back. It’s fair to point out that Argentina’s opponents were weaker than France’s, but that’s not Argentina’s fault. Maybe they’re too reliant on Lionel Messi, or maybe he’s just leading the way as Argentina continues to grow into the tournament, now facing the easiest path that any favorite has to the quarterfinals.  2026 Soccer Pick 'Em with FOX One: Make your predictions for the Round of 32! 2. France France has a legitimate case for the top spot, as the third team in the last 40 years to win all three World Cup group games with a goal difference of plus-eight or better. The other two were 2002 Brazil and 1998 France, both of which won the title. When you see France’s attack in full flight, you expect them to hang three goals on everyone, as they did in the group stage. My only concerns are that the defense hasn’t been as stout as Didier Deschamps’ sides usually are, and the road to meeting Spain in the semis likely includes Germany and either Netherlands or Morocco. Spain's Lamine Yamal celebrates with teammate Rodri, left, after scoring his side's opening goal during the World Cup Group H soccer match between Spain and Saudi Arabia in Atlanta, Sunday, June 21, 2026. AP Photo/Erik S.Lesser 3. Spain I wouldn’t quibble much with Spain in the top spot either. La Roja dominated Cape Verde and Saudi Arabia as expected, outshooting the pair 49-9, with 4.3 expected goals to 0.4. The ball just didn’t go in against Cape Verde, resulting in a 0-0 draw. The group finale against Uruguay was an odd rock fight that doesn’t concern me much. Spain could meet Portugal in the Round of 16 but will be a heavy favorite against any other team in that quarter of the bracket. England's Harry Kane (9) scores his side's second goal during the World Cup Group L soccer match between Panama and England in East Rutherford, N.J., near New York, Saturday, June 27, 2026. AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura 4. England England’s second half against Croatia was one of the most impressive at the tournament, as Thomas Tuchel decided the best defense was a good offense. England outscored Croatia 2-0 and had 1.9 xG to Croatia’s 0.3. It was the proverbial paddlin’, and I was ready to move England to my top spot. But then England struggled to break down a low block against both Ghana and Panama, and England’s next opponents (DR Congo and Mexico/Ecuador) will approach the game similarly to varying degrees. It’s not enough to scare me away, but it’s worth keeping in mind. Tier 2: Teams with a shot If any of these teams made a run to the semis or even the final, I wouldn’t be shocked, but I view them as a step or two below the top four. Colombia's forward #07 Luis Diaz (2nd-L) celebrates with teammates after scoring his team's second goal during the 2026 World Cup Group K football match between Uzbekistan and Colombia at the Mexico City Stadium in Mexico City on June 17, 2026. CARL DE SOUZA via Getty Images 5. Colombia I liked what I saw from Colombia in all three games. Los Cafeteros were dominant at times in all three against very different opponents and tactics. More than four goals would have been nice, but Colombia had the second-most shots of the knockout stage teams, the controlled chaos was effective at both ends, and the shot quality allowed was third-lowest among knockout teams.  A quarterfinal against Argentina in Kansas City could be epic, and if there’s a first-time winner of this tournament, Colombia is my pick. 6. Germany Germany routed Curaçao as expected, then coulda/shoulda lost to Ivory Coast before actually losing to Ecuador in a meaningless game for Germany. So I’m not sure we learned much, other than that I still don’t know if Germany has the usual high-end talent. The same thing could have been said about the Germany team that won the 2014 World Cup. Just like that tournament, Germany could run into France in the second knockout game, and it’s tough to see Germany hanging with France’s firepower.  7. Brazil Not much has changed from my pre-tournament thoughts on Brazil, which has tremendous individual talent up top, a strong pair of center backs and a creaky midfield that doesn’t connect the two. Morocco ran riot through that midfield in the opening half hour, and any of the teams in Brazil’s sneaky tough eighth of the bracket could do the same. Japan could pass right through the middle; Ivory Coast could terrorize the wings, and Norway could do a bit of both. I wouldn’t be surprised if Brazil loses to any of those three teams. 8. Netherlands The Dutch looked great in trouncing Sweden and Tunisia by a combined 8-1, but the opening 2-2 draw against Japan was a different story. Neither team created much, but the score was padded by excellent finishing. Otherwise, there would be more questions about how Netherlands will fare against a comparable team.  The Dutch have a very difficult Round-of-32 game against Morocco but a favorable potential matchup with Canada in the Round of 16, before likely running into France or Germany.  Cristiano Ronaldo (L) and Bruno Fernandes of Portugal (R) prepare to take a free kick during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group K match between Colombia and Portugal at Miami Stadium on June 27, 2026 in Miami Gardens, United States. Eurasia Sport Images via Getty Images 9. Portugal I ranked Portugal ninth, and in retrospect I’m not exactly sure why. I suppose it’s because the midfield still might be the tournament’s best with Bruno Fernandes attacking and Vitinha anchoring. The talent is obviously there, but Portugal was largely outplayed by Colombia and looked stunningly inert against Congo DR.  There’s a real chance Croatia can stifle Portugal similarly in the Round of 32, and even if that doesn’t happen, Spain is looming in the next round. Oh, and there’s still the Cristiano Ronaldo problem , even after he scored twice in the didn’t-teach-us-anything 5-0 win over Uzbekistan.  Folarin Balogun #20 of United States celebrates a goal during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Group D match between USA and Australia at Seattle Stadium on June 19, 2026 in Seattle, Washington. Al Sermeno/ISI Photos via Getty Images 10. United States Yes, I’m homering the United States into the top ten. This should probably be Norway or Morocco. But as Alexi Lalas says, if you don’t like my list, make your own list.  Here’s the case for the United States: in the two group games that mattered, the Americans dominated Paraguay and Australia as a good team should. If those same performances had been turned in by Germany or Argentina, nobody would have blinked. The U.S. took care of business with attacking intent rarely shown in this cycle.  Having said that, the U.S. finishing is running a bit hot, and two own goals aided the American cause. But a favorable matchup with Bosnia and Herzegovina is potentially followed by a vulnerable Belgium team that the U.S. played evenly for a half in March. That’s as good a draw as the U.S. can realistically get, even with Spain the potential quarterfinal opponent. France's Kylian Mbappe (10) left and Norway's Erling Haaland (9) in conversation after final whistle during the World Cup Group I soccer match between Norway and France in Foxborough, Mass., near Boston,Friday,June,26 2026. AP Photo/Dave Shopland 11. Norway Erling Haaland has done Erling Haaland things thus far, scoring twice in each group game he played, a 4-1 romp over Iraq and a hard-fought 3-2 win over Senegal. Without Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, Norway still played France respectably, and only Ousmane Dembélé finding God mode flattered the favorites. Norway would probably be a couple spots higher were it not for a tough path through Ivory Coast and then Brazil or Japan. Plus questions remain about how this Norway squad will handle its first major-tournament knockout stage. 12. Morocco Morocco outplayed Brazil for large swaths of the opener and easily could have won that game. It’s tough to take much from the matches against Scotland and Haiti, so I’m excited to see what Morocco can do versus Netherlands. Whichever team can better exploit the space behind the other’s attacking right back (Denzel Dumfries and Achraf Hakimi) may win that game, with Canada awaiting in the Round of 16. I won’t be surprised if Morocco gets back to the quarterfinals to battle France again.  13. Japan Nothing in the group stage dissuaded me from my love for this Japan team, which conceded the second-fewest shots and sixth-fewest expected goals among the advancing teams. Japan takes good shots (seventh-best among the 32) and gives up bad ones (seventh-worst, which is good from the defensive perspective). Even without the injured stars, Japan can hang with any team at the tournament.  Japan can also exploit Brazil’s aforementioned weak spots with pressure, passing and quick strikes. Samurai Blue beat Brazil in October, and I think a repeat is very much a possibility.  Mexico's Julian Quinones celebrates scoring his side's second goal against Czechia during a World Cup Group A soccer match in Mexico City, Wednesday, June 24, 2026. AP Photo/Silvia Izquierdo 14. Mexico Mexico (quietly?) became the sixth team to win all three World Cup group games without conceding a goal. The bad news is that Mexico has a single World Cup knockout-stage win. The good news is that it was at Estadio Azteca, site of Tuesday’s Ecuador match and a potential Round-of-16 match. The dream Round-of-16 match is against England, at Azteca 40 years after Diego Maradona scored two of the most famous goals ever there against England in the 1986 World Cup quarterfinals. I don’t know how England would handle that cauldron of a stadium, but I desperately hope to find out.  Tier 3: No way they make a run, right? This tier primarily features good teams that have tough draws, meaning two surprising results would likely be necessary to make the quarterfinals … 15. Belgium As much as I’d like to write off this team more, Jeremy Doku and the thirty-somethings won’t quite let me. They rose to the occasion in the group finale, beating New Zealand 5-1 behind four goals from players aged 31 and over.  Belgium fired off 73 shots in the first three games, the most by any team in a World Cup group stage since Ivory Coast in 2006. I doubt the Red Devils will have as many opportunities against Senegal on Wednesday, but the sun hasn’t fully set on this golden generation yet. 16. Senegal The Lions of Teranga went toe-to-toe with France for a half, then weren’t much worse than Norway, so maybe I’m underrating them as they line up against another European foe that’s a step down. Senegal can strike on the counter as quickly as anyone, and Ismaila Sarr has been one of the tournament’s best attackers. Belgium and a potential rematch with the U.S. from earlier this month won’t be easy, but Senegal has the experience and talent to pull a couple upsets. 17. Ivory Coast Yan Diomande is having his moment, showing that he’s not just a pacy winger. He can also play on the ball, leading Ivory Coast in touches as he ranks in the group stage’s top five in chances created and successful one-v-ones. He and the Ivorians could certainly scare Norway and the Brazil-Japan winner, but that’s a tough couple of matches for a team in its first World Cup knockout stage.  18. Ecuador This Ecuadorian defense has the potential to frustrate Mexico, and Ecuador is used to playing in elevated hostile environments. But the offensive questions remain. Ecuador’s attacking numbers are all kinds of skewed by taking 27 shots and piling up 2.8 xG in a scoreless draw against Curaçao, so it’s hard to see La Tri getting more than a goal at Azteca while also keeping Mexico off the scoresheet. I’d love to see Ecuador get past Mexico and frustrate England, but I’m not optimistic about it.  19. Switzerland Winning Group B earned Switzerland a favorable matchup with Algeria in the Round of 32, so the Swiss should finally win a World Cup elimination game for the first time since 1938. It’s a cliche but true: a steady Switzerland could trouble almost anyone but doesn’t have the ceiling of potential Round-of-16 opponent Colombia.  Canada's Stephen Eustaquio, second left, celebrates with teammates after scoring his side's opening goal against South Africa during the World Cup round of 32 soccer match in Inglewood, Calif., near Los Angeles, Sunday, June 28, 2026. AP Photo/Marcio Sanchez 20. Canada The Canadians would be lower if they hadn’t already beaten South Africa on Stephen Eustaquio’s stoppage-time winner . It’s still hard to see them troubling the Netherlands-Morocco winner, after not creating a ton against either Switzerland (until the closing minutes) or Bosnia and Herzegovina. It’s unfortunate Canada didn’t win Group B to get one or two knockout games at home in Vancouver. Playing in the hot, supportive environment of BC Place might have meant a different story for Canada.  21. Croatia Maybe Croatia should be a dozen spots higher just because it’s Croatia, a team that should probably never be counted out early. This is the latest last stand for 40-year-old Luka Modric and his relatively elderly teammates, and they don’t seem to have the literal or metaphorical legs to make a run after grinding out wins over Panama and Ghana. The far more talented Portugal and potentially Spain await, so that’s surely the end of the Cinderella story for this Croatian generation. Right?! Tier 4: A knockout-stage win would be huge That’s pretty self-explanatory, right? 22. Egypt The only one of these teams that’s favored in the Round of 32, Egypt obviously has a tremendous opportunity against a low-powered Australia side. The Pharaohs will have to deal with Australia’s physical and mental games, and they’ll want keeper Mostafa Shobeir to continue his hot shot-stopping, but they’re poised to get their first-ever World Cup knockout stage win before meeting Argentina. 23. Australia The Socceroos will also be thrilled with their knockout stage draw. Egypt is better, but not by much, and doesn’t have the high ceiling other potential opponents do. Australia will do what they do and muck up the game, looking to steal a goal and a win, or just get to penalties. 24. Algeria After the thrilling closing moments against Austria in the group finale, I’d believe anything is possible for this Algeria side. Maybe the engendered belief can fire them past a consistent Switzerland side before running into Colombia. It’s hard to judge a team that so precisely met expectations in the group stage, losing to Argentina and handling Jordan before drawing a comparable Austria side. 25. DR Congo The non-glamourous matchup I’m most anticipating in the Round of 32 is England-Congo, simply because I want to see if England has learned how to better attack a low block that held Portugal and Colombia to a combined 1.6 expected goals. I’m not saying Congo will pull the upset, but I can easily see the game being scoreless for an hour before England finally breaks through. 26. Ghana Speaking of frustrating low blocks, Carlos Queiroz is here! I like the way Ghana battled England and Croatia, but I don’t like the matchup with Colombia, which has plenty of dynamic playmakers who can slice through Ghana’s defense. Antoine Semenyo won’t be enough to counter Colombia’s waves of attackers. 27. Austria Like Algeria, Austria has also precisely met expectations so far, easing by Jordan and losing to Argentina before the chaotic draw in the group finale. The Austrians are this low simply because of the matchup with Spain, which is still in third gear but still one of the best teams at the tournament.   28. Bosnia and Herzegovina I hope I’m not jinxing the United States by putting Bosnia and Herzegovina this low. I just don’t see the upside for this team, which scored five goals in the group stage but was near the bottom in multiple attacking categories. Among the 32 teams that advanced, Bosnia and Herzegovina ranked 31st in both expected goals and shots quality, and in the bottom four in shot distance and percentage of shots inside the penalty area. The U.S. should be able to find room in the back line to continue the runs that have worked so well thus far. 29. Sweden Nothing I’ve seen from Sweden makes me think the defense is any better than it was in qualifying, when Sweden was last in the group but found a Nations League backdoor to the World Cup. Netherlands carved up the backline with five goals and 2.6 expected goals on only 10 shots, and Japan meandered its way to 1.2 expected goals on eight shots. In other words, Sweden gave up the second-best shots among the teams that advanced, and I’ve heard France has some pretty good attackers. 30. Paraguay Even stripping out Paraguay’s down-a-man second half against Türkiye, the numbers are bad, putting Paraguay in the bottom four of the knockout teams in just about every offensive metric. Maybe they can frustrate Germany enough to hang around a while, or maybe Germany has this game in hand by halftime. 31. Cape Verde If Cape Verde gets to halftime level with Argentina, that would be like one of the 1-vs-16 NCAA tournament games that thrills for a while, then usually ends with the top seed winning by 20. Unless Vozinha turns out to be Messi kryptonite, that’s probably how this game goes in the most optimistic scenario.  South Africa South Africa’s group-finale upset of South Korea was a great moment, but Bafana Bafana seemed to run out of gas against Canada, and the late goal conceded was cruel but just in the overall scheme of the game.