The U.S.'s World Cup path: Every opponent, every obstacle, every outcome

In certain sports, the United States stands as the dominant world power. We've won 119 of 121 World Series, 79 of 80 NBA Finals, 60 of 60 Super Bowls and all 12 College Football Playoffs. In World Cups on the men's side, though? Eh, not so great. Not even close to great, honestly.  The United States has won exactly one (1) knockout match in all of World Cup history. Think about that for a second. While Brazil and Argentina and Germany and France are stacking up titles, America spends every fourth year getting spanked the moment it ventures out of the warm confines of the group stage. Every World Cup, we tell ourselves it's going to be different, and every World Cup, we're sent off to bed hours before the big kids. This year, though, it's really going to be different.  The USMNT is coming into the knockout stage riding two victories and a loss with a built-in excuse (we were resting our best, of course). With the apparently elusive combination of talented players and a manager who knows how to get the best out of them , the United States is as well-positioned as any in World Cup history to make a deep run. How deep? Well, now that's the real question, isn't it?  We've listed the most dangerous potential opponent in each round. (Yes, every World Cup opponent is dangerous, as Germany can attest, but these are the biggest dogs.) We've also included the current projections for the United States to advance as developed by The Athletic . Together, these will give a sense of what's ahead for the USMNT. Spoiler: It ain't easy. At all. But nothing worthwhile ever is, right?  The weight of the U.S. hopes will be squarely on the shoulders of Christian Pulisic (second from right) as the U.S. head into the knockout rounds. Emilee Chinn via Getty Images Round of 32 This is the first time that the World Cup has featured a "round of 32," meaning a victory in this round still only leaves a team in the final 16, the same place as every previous World Cup team that advanced out of the group stage. But there's something about a victory in an all-or-nothing knockout round that hits a little differently, you know? Given that the USMNT hasn't won a knockout game since 2002, this would be a good sign that the team is on the right path. Round of applause all the way around.  Opponent: Bosnia & Herzegovina Chances to advance: 72 percent What if USMNT loses? Not quite disaster, since America advanced out of the group stage, but wow, what a tremendous letdown. And the same old questions about America's soccer competence would persist.  Round of 16 This match is scheduled for July 7, which is a real shame because if it had taken place on Independence Day, well, America would have scored in double figures. Alas. If the USMNT reaches this stage, it'll have to comfort itself with the thought that it has an opportunity to do something no American team has ever done: win two knockout-stage games. A victory here would mean the United States could start looking toward the next World Cup with something less than a feeling of dread and nausea … which would be a nice change of pace.  Toughest potential opponent: Belgium Chances to advance: 31 percent What if USMNT loses? Eh. A good result, but nothing remarkable. No reason to blow it all up, but then, no reason to think we're on anything but the same lukewarm, 45-mph path. (This, unfortunately, is the most likely outcome.)  The last time the U.S. men advanced to the quarterfinals of the World Cup was 2002, where they lost to Germany 1-0. DOUG KANTER via Getty Images Quarterfinals (final 8) Yeah. Yeah . Now we're getting somewhere. Win in those earlier rounds, and you might get a sandwich named after you or a "Meet a real USMNT player!" day at the county fair. But advance through the quarterfinals and reach the last four? (Not Final Four™, that's property of the NCAA.) Well, that would be an unparalleled achievement for an American team, and we would bandwagon-hop onto this team like it was the Lakers, Dodgers and Cowboys all rolled up in one.  Toughest potential opponent: Spain Chances to advance: 9 percent What if USMNT loses? A disappointment, but not a crushing one. As with all of these results, how a loss happens would be significant. Penalty kick shootout vs. 6-1 blowout are two very different kinds of losses, and would lead to two very different judgments on America's World Cup success.  Semifinals (final 4) If the United States is able to win in the semis and advance to the World Cup finals, there'd be an avalanche of patriotic messages, t-shirts, memes and red-white-and-blue spirit unlike any we've ever seen. Imagine Washington crossing the Delaware with Rocky, Superman and Mickey Mouse on board. Imagine every rallying-cry montage from "Any Given Sunday" to "Braveheart" (yeah, that was about Scotland, but it was made by an American). We're the nation that beat sharks, Russian boxers, Thanos and Death Stars! We can do this!  Toughest potential opponent: France Chances to advance: 3 percent What if USMNT loses? By this point, a loss is still a win. Reaching the semifinal — sorry, remaining four would be a huge success by any measure. Sure, we'd be disappointed that our miracle run ended up short, but this would be a sign that America is now a soccer power on the world stage.  World Cup finals Do we dare even dream? Sure, let's dream. If the USMNT manages to win the World Cup, it'd make Indiana's national championship, the Patriots' 28-3 rally and LeBron's triumph from down 3-1 look like rec league plastic-trophy victories. (Yes, the U.S. women have four World Cup victories, but the U.S. women don't tend to set themselves on fire every four years the way the men do.) If the Americans were to pull this off, carving through some combination of Lamal, Mbappé and Messi along the way, well … it would be one of the finest sports moments in United States history. And all the "U-S-A" chants would transform from annoying to terrifying. Do we dream … ?  Toughest potential opponent: Argentina Chances to win: 1 percent … but we're saying there's a chance What if USMNT loses? A heartbreaker, yes, but it would be like a fireworks grand finale lasting eight minutes instead of 10. If America reaches this point, we're far beyond anyone's expectations, including our own, and this will be the foundation for future success. We'll still blame the refs for the loss, though.  The goal is out there. The possibility still exists, every time the USMNT steps on the pitch, that a championship awaits. And if that does happen, oh, the celebrations that will ensue. Statues, state visits, renamed public properties … we'll remember the triumphs of the world champion American team for the rest of our nation's history. Or until the NFL season kicks off, whichever comes first.