World Cup power rankings: The 8 quarterfinalists, from title favorite to long shot

After 96 games, the World Cup is down to eight teams, a mix of traditional powers, rising programs and recently reliable squads. Breaking down the octet … Four of the remaining eight nations are former champions (Argentina, England, France, Spain), and the other four seek to be the second new winner this century, along with Spain in 2010. For the third straight World Cup, over half of the quarterfinalists are from Europe. CONMEBOL has only a single quarterfinalist for the first time since 2002, when Brazil won the title. Africa has consecutive World Cup quarterfinalists for the first time, and Morocco is the first African nation to reach any two World Cup quarterfinals. Four teams are repeat quarterfinalists from four years ago. France has made four straight quarterfinals, the longest active streak. England has reached three quarterfinals in a row, while Argentina and Morocco are here for a second consecutive World Cup.  With only eight teams to rank, there’s no need for tiers. This is a simple order of how likely I think each team is to win the tournament, through a combination of quality and the path ahead. World Cup power rankings: It's time for the quarterfinals and every squad left is a contender Josh Heim/Yahoo Sports 1. France I thought about getting cute and dropping France a spot or two for only beating Paraguay 1-0 on a penalty , but none of the other top-tier teams posted convincing wins, so France keeps the top spot. France wasn’t particularly threatened in the Round of 16, holding 75% possession and outshooting Paraguay 15-5. Generating only 0.7 non-penalty expected goals isn’t ideal for France, but the good news is that none of the remaining teams will play as defensively or negatively as Paraguay did.  I wonder how France will fare against a team (like Spain) that can better control the midfield, but I also trust the talented quartet up top to figure it out. France could still easily hang three goals on anyone, and I’m not as comfortable saying that about any other team. Spain's Lamine Yamal reacts during the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Portugal and Spain in Arlington, Texas, near Dallas, Monday, July 6, 2026. AP Photo/Gareth Patterson 2. Spain  Spain keeps my second spot after needing a stoppage-time goal to beat Portugal 1-0 in the Round of 16 . Despite its lowest possession of the tournament (55%) against Portugal, Spain still had the better chances (1.7 xG to 0.6).  The Spanish are the only side yet to allow a goal at this tournament. They’ve conceded 29 shots, second-fewest among knockout-stage teams, and the lowest shot quality in the tournament at 0.05 xG per shot, less than half the tournament average. That defense, which stems from an excellent press, made me consider Spain for the top spot, but I’m not as convinced by the attack yet.  Spain ranks second in shots among the quarterfinalists, but seventh in average shot quality. The offense has been a bit more dynamic with Lamine Yamal back, but lacks balance with Nico Williams still absent from the other wing.  I might have put Spain first were Spain on the other half of the bracket, but with a higher-ceiling France team most likely waiting in the semifinals, Spain remains second in my power rankings. Argentina players toss teammate Lionel Messi into the air as they celebrate after the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Argentina and Egypt in Atlanta, Tuesday, July 7, 2026. AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman 3. Argentina Argentina had the easiest path to the quarterfinals of all the top favorites, yet had the most difficulty getting there, needing extra time to beat Cape Verde and a two-goal comeback to defeat Egypt .  Argentina became the first team ever to win a World Cup game in regulation after trailing by two goals with 15 minutes left, doing so by creating eight shots worth 1.1 expected goals following Egypt’s second goal. The defending champions have more match-winning types of players than any team except France, and they also have the intangible belief that comes from being a winning team and having Lionel Messi in the side. The favorable road to the final continues for Argentina. Had Colombia advanced over Switzerland, I would have dropped Argentina a pot, just because Colombia has proven the ability to go toe-to-toe with Argentina. A sturdy Switzerland team could do the same, but without the familiarity and upside of Colombia, so Argentina remains third overall and first on that half of the bracket. England's Jude Bellingham celebrates with teammates after scoring his second goal during the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Mexico and England in Mexico City, Sunday, July 5, 2026. AP Photo/Natacha Pisarenko 4. England England holds steady after a dramatic 3-2 win over Mexico at Estadio Azteca. After Jarell Quansah’s 54th-minute red card, Thomas Tuchel made all the right substitutions to shore up the defense. Mexico had 19 non-penalty shots, but they were from an average distance of 21 yards and worth only 1.1 xG, meaning the typical shot quality was about half of the tournament average. Mexico seemed to have no ideas except to get the ball wide and send in crosses against England’s giants, and England gets some of the credit for that. I’m still not wholly convinced England can break down a low block when necessary, but the Three Lions won’t likely see that defense again except in an endgame scenario. Their quarterfinal matchup will be interesting, since Norway is fine with not having the majority of possession, but England’s talent advantage across the board should counterbalance Erling Haaland being the best striker on the planet.  Norway's Erling Haaland leads the team as they participate in a viking boat row after the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Brazil and Norway in East Rutherford, N.J., near New York, Sunday, July 5, 2026. AP Photo/Frank Franklin II 5. Norway Norway beat Brazil 2-1 in the Round of 16 , though the final score was deceptively close after Neymar’s meaningless stoppage-time penalty. Brazil didn’t have more than a couple high-quality shots, and Norway eventually figured out what to do with the 66% possession, as Erling Haaland outmaneuvered Gabriel for a close-range header and then took advantage of space for a long-range strike. Haaland now has four match-winning goals in four appearances at this World Cup and seven of Norway’s dozen goals in the tournament. He’s pretty good! Having the best player on the field is obviously a good thing for Norway, and Martin Ødegaard isn’t far behind, so Norway has more than a puncher’s chance against England. Norway should be more comfortable with less of the ball and still find plenty of room to run against England, which gave up several transition opportunities to Mexico last round. Another upset or three from Norway wouldn’t be shocking but would still be upsets for the first-time quarterfinalist. Players of Morocco react after the World Cup round of 16 soccer match against Canada in Houston, Saturday, July 4, 2026. AP Photo/David J. Phillip 6. Morocco Morocco eventually took care of business against co-host Canada, winning 3-0 after tacking on two goals in the final 10 minutes. The Atlas Lions were outplayed in the first half but still managed to limit Canada to four shots and a couple other dangerous opportunities. On the bright side, the ability to win when not playing optimally is a sign of a good team, which Morocco is, as the first African nation to make two World Cup quarterfinals. Morocco would be at least a spot higher in these power rankings if the next two opponents were not likely the two best teams in the tournament (France and Spain). This Morocco team is better than the side that got by Spain on penalties four years ago before giving France trouble in the semifinals, so beating one or both wouldn’t be a total stunner. But the simple math of needing to pull two sizable upsets leaves Morocco sixth on this list.  Swiss players celebrate after winning the penalty shootout during the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between Switzerland and Colombia in Vancouver, British Columbia, Tuesday, July 7, 2026. AP Photo/Abbie Parr 7. Switzerland After three straight Round-of-16 exits, Switzerland is in the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time in 72 years, ending the longest quarterfinal drought of any nation. The Swiss handled Algeria with relative ease, then were a bit fortunate to advance on penalties against Colombia . I’ll feel better about Switzerland’s chances of upsetting Argentina if Johan Manzambi recovers from a knee injury. The 20-year-old is Switzerland’s most dynamic player, and his three goals and two assists make him the youngest player with five goal contributions at a World Cup on record (since 1966). Without him on the field, the Swiss have scored once in over 300 minutes at this World Cup, and they looked far less dangerous against Colombia.  Even if Manzambi isn’t back, I can see the solid Swiss squad keeping up with Argentina for a while, but they haven’t faced an attack like Argentina’s yet, and a lack of explosiveness will catch up with the Swiss over the course of 90 (or 120) minutes.  Belgium's Romelu Lukaku celebrates after scoring his team's fourth goal during the World Cup round of 16 soccer match between the United States and Belgium in Seattle, Monday, July 6, 2026. AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson 8. Belgium Belgium scored the most goals of any team in the Round of 16, crushing American dreams in a 4-1 win on Monday. Surprisingly, head coach Rudi Garcia did not start Jeremy Doku or Kevin De Bruyne, and it turns out that neither was needed, given Belgium’s direct attacks and midfield dominance. Amadou Onana was a big reason Belgium controlled the game early, as he seemed to be everywhere in the opening 20 minutes before injuring his ACL. He’ll miss the rest of the tournament, and his absence will be glaring against Spain’s press in the quarterfinals.  Like Morocco, Belgium would likely be higher in the rankings were the tournament’s two best teams not looming. Also like Morocco, Belgium has enough high-end talent to trouble anyone, but likely not enough to really threaten to win the title considering the path ahead.