Heat, humidity and Haaland: Why Norway can upset England in World Cup quarter-final

As the England squad reached a sweltering Miami, there were naturally a few wondering whether it was better to not play Brazil in this weather. It is set to “feel like” 45 degrees on Saturday, due to humidity that can rise to 80 per cent, which means it’s probably preferable to face a country partly based in the Arctic Circle. Thomas Tuchel and his staff, however, would instantly caution against such thinking – not least because Norway are likely a better team than Brazil. Given how much the England manager has talked about “brotherhood”, Tuchel enthuses about the spirit in the Norwegian camp. The win over Mexico illustrates how England are developing an emotional momentum of their own, with the post-game ritual of “Wonderwall” now forming their own version of Norway’s viking row. This team now really believes. The doubts that formed from early issues, that still remain, just do not weigh on England. That’s what wins like that in the Azteca do. You feel you can get through anything. Norway feel similar from a “surprise” win over Brazil in the last 16. Tuchel is fully aware that a “club mentality” can bring you a long distance amid the emotional intensity of a World Cup. He’s just as conscious that a world-class player distilling that spirit into real end product is as dangerous an opposition as you can get outside a properly world-class team – a bit like Hristo Stoichkov’s Bulgaria in USA ‘94. Erling Haaland is not just the first of this World Cup’s big stars that England face, but the best finisher in the world, and perhaps the one better striker than Harry Kane. The 25-year-old also plays into other fraternal links between England and Norway – at least in terms of a little brother-big brother relationship – that does skew some of the emotion around this game. If England usually don’t care much about Norway, Norway famously still care a lot about England. Norwegian football fans have a long-standing appreciation for the English game (Getty) It’s as Anglophile a nation as you can get. There is immense pride that Haaland was again Premier League Golden Boot winner, and Martin Odegaard the country’s first Premier League-winning captain, due to the immense interest in the English game. That’s a level above Lars Bohinen and Haaland’s own father Alfe Inge. With Norway’s football culture having developed through such regular broadcasting of English football for decades, it remains an important part of the heritage. Manager Stale Solbakken, who briefly played for Wimbledon, is described as the most passionate fan you can have. There are more Norwegians in supporter clubs of England clubs than there are members of political parties. The passion is stronger than ever, at the same time as the country’s domestic football – principally through Bodo-Glimt – enjoys a boom. That duality speaks to the outlook of the Norwegian national team right now, as well as the dynamic with England. Tuchel suddenly faces a different kind of pressure, as he arguably takes on his first proper test. Croatia may have been 20 places ahead of Norway in the Fifa world rankings before this tournament, at 11th, but that game was in the more forgiving context of the group stage. This is do or die, and England have not been eliminated by a team they should beat since Iceland in 2016. The last World Cup is the only competition in that time where they have gone out before the semi-finals, and that was to France. If this sounds a little too dismissive of Norway, the Norwegians would say similar themselves. And while Tuchel and his squad are fully aware of the challenge, the reality shouldn’t be overlooked. England have so much more strength in depth, with stars playing at a higher level. Much has been made of how one of Norway’s heroes is a career second-choice goalkeeper, in Orjan Nyland. That difference in squad profile could be all the more crucial in the punishing humidity. It does feel a little absurd that Fifa has chosen this venue in mid-July, out of the 16 available. Florida is already responsible for the “hottest World Cup match ever played”, which was a temperature of 43 degrees for Mexico’s 2-1 win over Ireland in USA ‘94, where John Aldridge infamously exploded at a yellow-capped official. Even the Mexican camp were said to have railed at Fifa, telling them to them to take off their suits and try and play. It is going to be extremely hot in Miami, where Brazil beat Scotland earlier in the tournament (Getty) The heat could make this quarter-final a very slow affair. Hence the value in England being able to swap Marcus Rashford for Anthony Gordon, amid a range of options. By the same token, where Norway have just one star scoring, England have two. If Kane doesn’t get you, Jude Bellingham will. It shouldn’t be overlooked how England have almost never had this. It’s already six goals for Kane and four for Bellingham . The closest in any previous tournament was Gary Lineker hitting four and David Platt three in 1990; Wayne Rooney and Frank Lampard doing the same, respectively, in Euro 2004; and Geoff Hurst scoring four to the three each of Bobby Charlton and Roger Hunt in 1966. Such abundance could be all the more important in a game between two relatively porous defences. England have conceded five in five, despite two clean sheets against teams who had little willingness to attack in Ghana and Panama. For Norway, it’s 10 in five, albeit with their second string conceding four to France. The anticipated return of Reece James to the starting line-up will also change the equation. World Cup games don’t always go on such crude maths, mind, especially at this stage. The different expectations and emotions weigh on the event, too. If England are aiming to go all the way, Norway’s public stance is that they are just happy to have got this far. They are all talking about what a bonus it is, enjoying the journey. They’ve already created a national moment, as seen with the scenes of hundreds of thousands celebrating in Oslo. The expression of such sentiments, at least as regards how this game will be approached, should still be viewed with the same skepticism as Haaland saying they had a “slim chance” against Brazil. They knew it was much more than that. Erling Haaland celebrates after Norway knocked out Brazil (Getty) For all the fun around their journey, there’s naturally a real seriousness there. If Solbakken has corralled the group together, and finally figured out how to get Haaland, Odeegard and Alexander Sorloth into the same team. Former Fulham centre-half Brede Hangeland is on Solbakken’s staff and is integral to picking apart opposition. His forensic approach has turned a lot of games, not least that last-16 match against Brazil. In that game Norway brought on Oscar Bobb and Andreas Schelderup at half-time, realising how much space that Carlo Ancelotti’s Haaland-focused approach was leaving out wide. Schelderup ensured the striker eventually got the opportunity he could score from. This is what England have to be most wary of. Tuchel’s side should dominate, and have the depth, but they have to be conscious of an almost guerrilla approach. In a game where the heat is going to rise, this could come down to use of firepower.