Will World Cup Final determine Ballon d'Or winner? Or has the race been blown wide open

The combatants in the UEFA Champions League Final and summer international hardware usually go a long way toward determining the Ballon d'Or winner as the best men's player in the world. PSG's repeat European Cup win over Arsenal opened the door for some serious stars to live as front-runners, but the World Cup was always likely to play an outsized role in putting a player in the driver's seat. JPW — How England blew it | World Cup’s Golden Boot leaderboard And with no Argentine and just a pair of Spain players — neither regular contributors — in the UCL Team of the Season. resumes can really be boosted on Sunday at New York New Jersey Stadium. For most of this World Cup, it looked like Kylian Mbappe was going to earn his coronation as not just as perhaps the critical player in French national team history but also as a first-time Ballon d'Or winner. That could still happen — we'll detail why below — but the list of possible winners is long. Who did voters pick in 2025 Ballon d’Or voting? France and PSG star Ousmane Dembele won last year’s Ballon d’Or in a mild surprise, beating out teenager Lamine Yamal. Filling out the top 10 were Vitinha, Mohamed Salah, Raphinha, Achraf Hakimi, Mbappe, Cole Palmer, Gianluigi Donnarumma, and Nuno Mendes. Who has the best case for 2026 Ballon d’Or prior to World Cup Final? Kylian Mbappe (PSG and France) Harry Kane (Bayern Munich and England) Erling Haaland (Manchester City and Norway) Martin Odegaard (Arsenal and Norway) Declan Rice (Arsenal and England) Achraf Hakimi (PSG and Morocco) Well let's start with Mbappe , who finishes the season without a team honor under his belt but a possible Golden Boot in the World Cup in addition to already leading the Champions League and La Liga in goals. No clear front-runner for the award could see it become a career-achievement award and Mbappe did lead France deep into this tournament. Kane would fit that bill, too, after helping guide England into the semifinals in a co-starring act with Jude Bellingham, who did much less at club level. Kane scored an absurd 61 goals in 51 club games this season. Odegaard won the Premier League and was a Champions League runner-up at Arsenal while Haaland won a domestic cup double with Man City. The latter had gaudy numbers at the World Cup but they were the drivers of Norway's quarterfinal run. Rice was a key piece of Arsenal's run and also mattered deeply to England. And how about Hakimi , who won a second-straight Champions League and helped drive Morocco to another World Cup quarterfinal appearance? Who could charge into the Ballon d’Or lead with World Cup win? Fabian Ruiz (PSG and Spain) Lautaro Martinez (Inter Milan and Argentina) Lionel Messi (Inter Miami and Argentina) Lamine Yamal (Barcelona and Spain) Rodri (Manchester City and Spain) It would be wild to see an MLS player win a Ballon d'Or with his entire club campaign coming in the North American league, but Messi has done more with less. He's tied for the Golden Boot lead and was regularly torching MLS back lines prior to his magic at the World Cup . Fellow Argentine attacker Martinez led Serie A in goals for the second-straight year and scored four times in the Champions League. He assisted Argentina's 90th-minute winner against Egypt in the Round of 16, scored the final extra time goal in their 3-1 win over Switzerland, and capped the comeback over England with a headed winner. It would be difficult to ignore another dose of heroics in the final. As for Spain... Rodri had to work his way back to his best with Manchester City following his ACL injury last year but this tournament has shown him worthy of a second Ballon d'Or. Would voters be averse to making him the 11th multi-time winner? Don't underestimate Ruiz , who fought injuries this season with PSG but won the Champions League and has partnered with Rodri to run rule over the midfield. He missed about three months with a knee injury, which could hurt him. Yamal finished second last year and just turned 19 this month. Ronaldo Nazario is the current youngest winner and did so at 21 years, three months, and five days old. Barcelona won La Liga and Yamal averaged just under a goal contribution per game across all club competitions (45 games, 24 goals, 18 assists).