How Irish League's long-term European hopes rest with Larne

Larne's defeat by Iberia 1999 in Europa League qualifying was not just bad news for the Irish Premiership champions, but for the league as a whole. While the club's European hopes are still alive with the Uefa Conference League, the loss in Georgia has wider implications. It meant that, as an association member, Northern Ireland dropped to 51st in Uefa's coefficient, out of a possible 55. As things stand, the Irish Premiership would lose one of its four European places for the 2028-29 season. But what is the Uefa coefficient, and how have Irish League clubs struggled? BBC Sport NI takes a look Larne edged out by Iberia 1999 after extra-time What is Uefa's coefficient ranking? The coefficient ranking is used by Uefa, governing body of European football, to determine how many spots are allocated to teams in each competition. Associations are allocated points for wins, and the overall score is taken over the five previous seasons. To make things slightly more complicated, the overall score for each season is divided by the number of clubs who participated in each campaign. For this season, Larne qualified for the qualifying stages of the Champions League courtesy of winning the Irish Premiership - their fourth title in five years. League runners-up Coleraine won the Irish Cup to book their place in the Uefa Conference League qualifying round. The Bannsiders' win allowed Glentoran to take the league's second European place, which is usually allocated to the second-placed team in the league, while Linfield triumphed in the end-of-season play-offs to claim the final spot, again in the Conference League. But the European qualifying campaigns did not go well, and that has hampered Northern Ireland in the coefficient ranking. The association ranked 51st or below at the end of the season will lose a European spot for the 2028-29 campaign [BBC Sport] Larne defeated Tre Flori in their first round of the Champions League but were well beaten by Red Star Belgrade in the second round, and they dropped out of Europa League qualifying after the extra-time loss in Tbilisi to Iberia 1999. Glentoran and Linfield both exited in the first round of Conference League qualifying, while Coleraine were convincingly beaten by Helsinki in the second round. After those exits and Larne's loss in Georgia, Northern Ireland has fallen four places in the coefficient rankings to 51st place, which puts it in danger of losing one of its European allocation. This would come into effect for the 2028-29 season, rather than the next campaign. To add insult to injury, Georgia were the team to leapfrog Northern Ireland into 50th place, while the likes of Gibraltar, Estonia and Andorra are next in line as you move up the rankings. How could the Irish League be impacted? The bottom line is that Northern Ireland would lose one of their four European places. The league winners will retain their Champions League qualifying spot regardless, and the prestige of the Irish Cup will also mean that the winners will qualify for Europe. So the Northern Ireland Football League would be faced with two choices - to either keep qualification for second place and lose the play-offs, which have become an added incentive for teams not in the title race, or expand the play-offs to include the second-placed team. Speaking ahead of the new season, NIFL chief executive Gerard Lawlor said he was "very" worried. "It's very obvious that European performances have not been good enough," he said on BBC Radio Ulster. "The better our clubs do in Europe, it's not just the four clubs who get the money. The better the coefficient the money goes to everyone. The higher up the rankings the teams get us, the more money that comes into the pot for everyone." He also added that clubs would need to be consulted on the different options for the league if they were to lose a place for 2028. Former Crusaders captain Colin Coates said it was "not a good situation" for the league to be in. "There are four full-time clubs whose minimum expectations are Europe, and four into three doesn't go so one of those clubs are automatically going to be disappointed. "I think the play-offs, they give hope to a lot of teams down the league, who might think Europe is a chance to progress and build. "You could end the season with a lot of dead-rubbers, so there's a lot that would trickle down and it's not good." Former Dungannon Swifts manager Dean Shiels agreed, but said clubs should not be relying on additional money from Europe to sustain their financial models. "There's no divine right for the top four to get European money. That's a dangerous scenario. "There's a lot of pressure on Larne now, not just for them to succeed but for the rest of the league." Can NI hit back? Despite dropping out of the top 50, all is not lost for Northern Ireland. However, they will need Larne to qualify for the league phase of the Conference League, as they famously did in 2024, and also put in a decent performance. In the final qualifying round, either Lincoln Red Imps of Gibraltar or Cyprus side Omonia stand in their way. In the league phase, a club will pick up two points for a win and one point for a draw. This is halved for results in qualifying rounds. It is also important to remember that the Irish League's total at the end of the season will be divided by four. Should Larne reach the league phase, then they would earn a bonus 0.125 points for each position gained in the overall rankings, which adds extra incentive. It is also out of Larne's hands to an extent, as the teams above Northern Ireland can also pick up more points as they all have at least one team in contention in Europe. Estonia are best placed with two of their four teams still in contention, while Malta - although further ahead - are the nearest team without a club still in Europe. While the rest of the league will be looking at the Inver Park side, manager Gary Haveron was not feeling pressure to deliver for the league. "Is it extra responsibility? No, I don't feel like it is," Haveron told BBC Sport after the first leg of the game with Iberia 1999, which ended in a goalless draw before the Georgian's extra-time win in Tbilisi. "We will go out and try our absolute damnedest, but I would say that about any game that Larne play in. "If everybody benefits and every club can benefit from it, then I'm only too glad to do it."