No Jannik Sinner ... a rusty Carlos Alcaraz ... and a US Open that could get wild

When the US Open ended a year ago, all the evidence pointed to Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner continuing to meet in every major final as far as the eye could see. Not only had they battled for the title in Paris, London and New York, the gap between them and the rest of the field seemed to only be growing. It was a rivalry in full bloom and in many ways a race to history, reminiscent of the early dominance that Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal once shared. But as another US Open begins Sunday, there is only one thing we know for sure: Alcaraz and Sinner will end 2026 without meeting in any of the Grand Slams. Though Alcaraz has made it to New York after missing 4 1/2 months with a wrist injury, Sinner has not played since winning Wimbledon and is out with a knee issue. A weird, injury-plagued year in men’s tennis will end weirdly and injury-plagued at the US Open. Should Alcaraz be considered the favorite to win his eighth major? Under normal circumstances, he’s that much better than the rest of the field, but these are not normal circumstances. Alcaraz has been ramping up for several weeks back home in Spain, but the decision to come back without a warmup tournament carries some risk and uncertainty. If Alcaraz had been ready to play at the Masters 1000 event in Cincinnati, he would have. Instead, he’ll dive into a best-of-five format having not played since the Monte Carlo final on April 12. How will the wrist hold up? How much competitive rust will he need to shake off? Alcaraz will probably be fine if he can get through the first week, but his team probably wasn’t thrilled to see Roman Safiullin pop up as a first-round opponent. There are a lot of players in the draw that don’t have the firepower to beat Alcaraz under any circumstances. Safiullin is one who does if you catch him on the wrong day. After winning the Australian Open, Carlos Alcaraz skipped the French and Wimbledon due to injury. NurPhoto via Getty Images It sets up a US Open, at least in theory, that could resemble the French Open from just a few months ago where Alcaraz was rehabbing back home and Sinner suffered some kind of heat reaction when he was up two sets to love against Juan Manuel Cerundolo, collapsing to a second-round defeat. What happened after that? Almost complete chaos. As players realized the opportunity in front of them, there were fascinating matches unfolding on a daily basis. There was also a lot of anxiety and outright choking until finally Alexander Zverev emerged with his long-awaited first major, outlasting Flavio Cobolli in five sets. If not Alcaraz, then who? As for Zverev, who inherited the No. 1 seed for the tournament but has never been ranked No. 1 in the world? He doesn’t look like a great pick either. Though he played excellent tennis at Wimbledon to reach his first final there, Zverev’s subsequent hard court results have been scratchy, losing early in both Montreal and Cincinnati. He’s also not played very well in general in New York over the last few years. Zverev has talked in the past about struggling to control the US Open’s Wilson brand ball, which feels a bit lighter on the racket and flies through the air quicker than other balls that are used at different tournaments. It’s hard to have much confidence in 39-year old Novak Djokovic either. Since losing to Sinner in the Wimbledon semifinals, he’s played just one match: A three-set loss to 42nd-ranked Thiago Agustin Tirante in Cincinnati in which he once against struggled with the heat, at one point keeling over and vomiting. Though the weather forecast for the US Open looks pretty mild, Djokovic has not given much evidence over the last couple years that he can hold up enough physically to withstand seven matches in the best-of-five format. His quest for a 25th major continues, but it would be a real surprise at this point. That brings us to the elephant in the room: The American players. It’s a tired storyline by now, but it’s been the storyline for 23 straight years since Andy Roddick’s US Open title. When is an American going to win a major again? The usual suspects should all be feeling a lot of confidence, particularly this year given their recent hard court form, their track record at the US Open and the discombobulated state of the field. Taylor Fritz, who reached the finals two years ago, won Washington. Ben Shelton, a semifinalist in 2023, won Canada for the second straight year. Frances Tiafoe, twice a semifinalist, got his game going in Cincinnati and reached the final. They will have the crowds behind them. They will also carry the most pressure of anyone in the field. Until one of them does it, skepticism is warranted. This also feels like the kind of tournament that could mint tennis’ next superstar. Injuries have slowed the progress of 22-year old Frenchman Arthur Fils, but he is an electric performer, has won 32 of 42 matches on the year and just bagged his first Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati. Rafael Jodar, the 19-year old Spaniard, has beaten Fils twice this summer and it seems to be a matter of when, not if, he’s going to regularly challenge for Slam titles. Make no mistake, this US Open would be better if Sinner and Alcaraz were in the field. It’s a real bummer that after some of the historically great battles they’ve had on the biggest stages, only one of them will even play the final three majors of the year. Let’s hope for better luck in 2027. But in the meantime, let’s enjoy a US Open that will either give us another chapter in the Alcaraz legend or a result that few of us could have seen coming.