Schalke, Elversberg and Paderborn: Can the Bundesliga’s promoted clubs survive in 2026/27?

Schalke, Elversberg and Paderborn: Can the Bundesliga’s promoted clubs survive in 2026/27? Three clubs arrive in the Bundesliga from the second division for the 2026/27 season, but their routes back to the top flight could hardly be more different. Schalke return as 2. Bundesliga champions, Elversberg completed another remarkable chapter in their rapid rise by finishing second, while Paderborn defeated Wolfsburg in the promotion/relegation play-off. Recent history provides all three with some encouragement. Looking at the five previous Bundesliga seasons, from 2021/22 to 2025/26, 10 automatically promoted clubs entered the top flight and six survived their first season, a 60% survival rate. Bochum, Werder Bremen, Heidenheim, St. Pauli, Cologne and Hamburg stayed up, while Greuther Fürth, Schalke, Darmstadt and Holstein Kiel were immediately relegated. Bundesliga.com provides an even broader picture: only five of the 15 promoted teams across the previous seven campaigns suffered immediate relegation. Schalke return after three years away For Schalke, promotion represents another opportunity to establish themselves where a club of their history and support expects to be. Their relegation in 2022/23 was followed by 10th and 14th-placed finished in the second division before Miron Muslić transformed their fortunes. The Royal Blues secured promotion with two matches remaining in 2025/26 and eventually finished as champions. Survival will nevertheless require more than momentum. Their previous Bundesliga return lasted only one season, providing a reminder of the difference between escaping the second division and building a squad capable of remaining in the first. Elversberg’s extraordinary journey continues Elversberg are the most intriguing of the newcomers. Having only reached the 2. Bundesliga for the first time in 2023, the Saarland club came remarkably close to promotion in 2024/25, losing to Heidenheim in the play-off. One year later, they finished second and secured automatic promotion. Their resources cannot compete with most Bundesliga clubs, meaning survival will depend on retaining the principles behind their extraordinary rise. Intelligent recruitment, tactical cohesion and developing players overlooked elsewhere have allowed Elversberg to continually outperform expectations. The Bundesliga represents their biggest test yet. Third time lucky for Paderborn? Paderborn return to the Bundesliga for the first time since 2019/20 after finishing third with 62 points and overcoming Wolfsburg in the play-off. After a goalless first leg, Ralf Kettemann’s side won 2-1 after extra time in Paderborn, ending Wolfsburg’s 29-year stay in the Bundesliga. History, however, presents a warning. This is Paderborn’s third Bundesliga campaign and their previous two, in 2014/15 and 2019/20, both ended in immediate relegation. That makes survival the obvious benchmark rather than simply enjoying another season among Germany’s elite. For Schalke, Elversberg and Paderborn, the challenge is considerable, but recent history demonstrates that promotion no longer automatically means an immediate return to the 2. Bundesliga. Six of the last 10 automatically promoted teams survived their first year. The question now is which of this season’s newcomers can follow them. GGFN  |  Felipe