What do the numbers tell us about Hogh's Celtic start?

Nine games, three goals - and all three of those strikes coming in the one match. It is fair to say Kasper Hogh has not had the start he or Celtic would have wanted after the club spent a club-record fee to sign the Denmark striker from Bodo/Glimt. Having bagged 53 goals in 102 appearances for his previous team, a handful of which came in the Champions League against top-level opposition, the 25-year-old arrived to fanfare following the signing of fellow big-money capture Camilo Duran. However, it is Duran who has hit the ground running while Hogh is yet to settle in the green and white after a challenging start to his Celtic career. Anyone who wears the number nine shirt for the Parkhead club will always attract attention, and that is before you factor in a reported £11m transfer fee. Now, with Martin O'Neill's men on a three-game losing run, serious questions are starting to be asked after Hogh's underwhelming introduction. That said, three goals in seven starts is not an awful return, but all those goals came in the one outing against Kilmarnock in early August. Hogh's hat-trick display that day sent an ominous warning to Celtic's domestic rivals, though he has not netted in seven fixtures since. But what do the underlying numbers tell us? Do they paint a promising or more alarming picture? A brief period out injured meant Hogh missed three league games for Celtic between the end of August and early September, but on a goals-per-90 basis the striker is second from top among all Scottish Premiership players with an average of 0.89. Again, it should be noted that each of his three goals came in the 5-1 victory over Kilmarnock, but his expected goals per 90 (also 0.89) is the highest in the division. A decent chunk of his total xG rating (2.99) also came in that rout at Rugby Park, but it has been performances elsewhere that have prompted concern, particularly in big games. Hogh, along with Duran, was brought to Celtic with Champions League pedigree and with the hope of taking them to the next level in Europe, but he failed to score across both play-off legs with LASK and the Europa League opener with Ferencvaros. In 109 minutes against Rangers this term, there has also been little involvement and no goal, although it would be unfair to pin that solely on the Danish forward. Clear-cut chances have been few and far between in recent defeats for Celtic, with only two shots on target mustered in the Old Firm losses. With the season threatening to unravel even at this early stage, O'Neill is yet to work out the formula to get the best out of Hogh, with Duran favoured through the middle from the start in the league defeat to Rangers last time out. How the 74-year-old and his backroom team fit both into the attack could shape how their campaign unfolds, with a trip to Motherwell on the horizon.