Dave Davis: Why Bradley Barcola’s Liverpool Numbers Demand Patience

Dave Davis: Why Bradley Barcola’s Liverpool Numbers Demand Patience Bradley Barcola’s Liverpool Numbers Reveal Why Patience Could Be Rewarded Bradley Barcola has been at Liverpool for barely five minutes, yet apparently we have already reached the stage where some supporters are comparing him to Darwin Núñez. I find that genuinely astonishing. Here is a player who scored a hat-trick against LASK in the Champions League, followed it with an assist in Liverpool’s 2-1 victory at Brentford, and is consistently finding himself in dangerous attacking positions. Yet the conversation after Saturday’s match was dominated in some quarters by the chances he failed to convert. I understand the frustration. There were opportunities at Brentford that Barcola should have handled better. Nobody needs to pretend otherwise. However, when I examine his performance, particularly the underlying numbers, I see plenty of encouragement. Liverpool need more match winners. Alexander Isak has already established himself as one, and I believe Barcola has every chance of joining him. The important thing now is understanding what the numbers are telling us. Brentford Performance Shows Bradley Barcola’s Strengths and Weaknesses Let’s start with the obvious criticism. Barcola played 90 minutes against Brentford, attempted four shots and failed to register a single effort on target. For an attacking player expected to contribute goals, that deserves scrutiny. There was the opportunity when he went through on goal and should have scored. Later, Florian Wirtz played him through, only for Barcola to make a mess of the situation, eventually passing towards Lewis Koumas. Both moments were disappointing. The second came right at the end of the match, when fatigue might have influenced his decision-making, although that remains difficult to establish. Yet there was also the curling effort that rattled the top of Caoimhín Kelleher’s crossbar. We were inches away from discussing an outstanding individual goal. Then there was his contribution to Liverpool’s winner. Alexis Mac Allister identified Barcola at the back post and delivered the ball towards him. Barcola showed excellent awareness to head it down into Alexander Isak’s path, allowing the striker to produce a superb finish. That was an important attacking contribution in a difficult away fixture. The statistics provide further context. Barcola registered 13 touches inside the opposition penalty area, attempted six dribbles and completed three of them. Thirteen penalty-area touches is particularly encouraging. It tells me he is repeatedly getting into the positions from which goals can come. Four shots also represent an improvement on his season average. I can acknowledge that his finishing disappointed me while remaining encouraged by the frequency with which he threatened Brentford’s defence. Liverpool’s Barcola Statistics Point Towards Goals This is where I think the discussion becomes particularly interesting. Across his opening eight Liverpool appearances in all competitions, Barcola has played 499 minutes. His attacking numbers, calculated per 90 minutes, provide a useful indication of what he is offering. His distance covered is also encouraging, averaging 10.14 kilometres per 90 across the 481 minutes for which Premier League and Champions League tracking data is available. The number I keep returning to is 0.56 expected goals per 90. Expected goals are not an exact science, and nobody should treat them as a guarantee of future finishing. However, if Barcola continues generating opportunities at that rate and converts them broadly in line with expectation, we are looking at approximately one goal every two full matches. That is a very encouraging level of attacking production. We regularly discuss one goal every two games as the territory of a top-level attacking player. Barcola is already generating the quality of opportunities that could support that return. Against Brentford, he attempted four shots, exceeding his season average of 2.71. His 13 penalty-area touches were also comfortably above his average of 8.84. These are precisely the attacking trends I want to see continue. I have spoken about the importance of getting Isak approximately three shots per game in good positions. I would apply similar thinking to Barcola. If Liverpool can consistently provide him with three shooting opportunities, particularly when he is making those intelligent runs into dangerous areas, I believe he possesses the ability to become another genuine match winner. That would make an enormous difference to this Liverpool team. Darwin Núñez Comparisons Ignore Barcola’s Development I genuinely laughed in disbelief when I saw the ‘Darwin Barcola’ comparisons circulating after the Brentford match. We are talking about a player who had scored a Champions League hat-trick against LASK in his previous appearance. Those goals involved some tidy finishing and encouraging movement. They demonstrated what Barcola can produce when the opportunities arrive and he takes them. Then he misses chances against Brentford and suddenly the conversation becomes about whether Liverpool have another Núñez situation on their hands. That is a ridiculous way to assess a developing attacking player. Mohamed Salah missed chances. Sadio Mané missed chances. Roberto Firmino missed chances. Every forward experiences moments when their finishing falls below the standard they expect of themselves. What matters is the wider pattern. For Barcola, that pattern currently includes regular shooting opportunities, considerable penalty-area involvement, intelligent movement and an encouraging expected-goals return. There are clearly aspects of his game requiring improvement. His decision-making against Brentford was occasionally poor, and his finishing needs greater consistency. I am also seeing encouraging combinations developing with Florian Wirtz. Barcola has shown an ability to interchange positions, make runs beyond defenders and move inside to receive the ball. Those movements offer Liverpool another route towards goal. His assist for Isak also demonstrated that he can contribute decisively without taking the final shot himself. There is every reason to remain patient while those relationships develop. Bradley Barcola Could Become Liverpool’s Next Match Winner The wider question concerns how many reliable match winners Liverpool actually possess. Isak is clearly one of them. He has scored five goals in his last five starts and delivered winners in three consecutive Premier League away matches. He has also accounted for five of Liverpool’s nine league goals this season, approximately 56 per cent. That level of reliance on one player is significant. I think back to Liverpool’s extraordinary attacking options during the 2021/22 campaign. Salah, Mané, Firmino, Diogo Jota and Luis Díaz collectively scored 92 goals across all competitions. That was an exceptional collection of attacking talent. The current squad contains considerable potential, but I would be astonished if Liverpool’s forwards collectively reached that figure this season. Cody Gakpo had been producing encouraging goal contributions before his injury. Wirtz has shown improvement, although he is still waiting for his first goal. Victor Muñoz has demonstrated his finishing ability, while Rio Ngumoha remains a young player whose development needs sensible expectations. For me, Barcola represents the clearest opportunity to establish another regular source of match-winning goals alongside Isak. There is also the prospect of seeing Barcola and his compatriot Hugo Ekitike playing together in the future. The potential combinations between those two are genuinely exciting. For now, the priority is straightforward. Keep Barcola getting into the penalty area. Keep creating shooting opportunities for him. Encourage the movement and combinations that are already producing dangerous situations. If he maintains an expected-goals average around 0.56 per 90 minutes and begins converting opportunities at that rate, a double-figure goals return becomes a realistic prospect with sufficient playing time. I am not demanding that he scores every chance. That would be an unreasonable expectation of any forward. What I want is consistency in the underlying attacking numbers and gradual improvement in his finishing and decision-making. Liverpool have invested heavily in their attack, and Andoni Iraola needs more players capable of deciding matches. Barcola has already shown enough to suggest he can become one of them. His Brentford performance contained the good, the bad and the ugly. I can live with that at this stage, particularly when the statistics indicate that he is consistently getting himself into positions to influence matches. Give me those opportunities, those penalty-area touches and that movement on a regular basis. The goals should follow.